Examining Non-Occurring of Political Revolutions in Iran Next to Destabilizations in the Years 2018, 2019 and 2022

Samiei, Mohammad

doi:10.22034/fademo.2025.532167.1126

Examining Non-Occurring of Political Revolutions in Iran Next to Destabilizations in the Years 2018, 2019 and 2022

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Mohammad Samiei

Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran

10.22034/fademo.2025.532167.1126

Abstract

Even if the demonstrations and instabilities in Iran during the years 2018, 2019 and 2022 had some potentials for developing into a revolution, because of the lack of leadership as well as social and cultural capitals failed to change to a widespread revolution. Using Ben Manski’s framework entitled movement building analysis and using the Popperian situational analysis, this paper attempts to analyze those demonstrations. In the end, considering the four shortcomings of the recent instabilities, it is concluded that the movements that wants to topple the Islamic Republic can only be successful if they have a centralized leadership enjoying social and cultural capitals, while the other side lacks those elements. In addition, thanks to the Western cultural hegemony, the prevalence of neoliberalism in the current societies which promotes post-ideology, post-Marxism, individualism, hedonism, reformism, dialogue, and prevents any sort of violence is in itself a serious obstacle to the revolution as the term was understood in the 20th century.

Keywords

Political Instabilities

Revolution

Political Movements

Social Capital

Cultural Capital

Revolution Leadership

Neoliberalism

Subjects