Revolution Studies

Revolution Studies

Analysis of the Non-Occurrence of Revolution in Iran Following the Unrest of 2017, 2019, and 2022

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Mohammad Samiei
Associate Professor, Department of Iranian Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/fademo.2025.532167.1126
Abstract
The unrest of 2017, 2019, and 2022, although in some respects possessing the potential to develop into a revolution, ultimately failed to gain widespread popular support, lacked continuity, and were consequently defeated. This study aims to examine the reasons behind the failure of these uprisings to mobilize the masses on a large scale. To this end, utilizing the theoretical framework of movement structure analysis as proposed by Ben Manskiــparticularly with an emphasis on the necessity of movement continuityــand employing the method of situational analysis (which focuses on the role of movement actors and activists rather than macro-structures), this series of protests has been investigated. The findings reveal that the aforementioned unrest faced fundamental deficiencies in transforming into a revolution. The study concludes that political movements can only be effective and successful when they possess leadership while simultaneously enjoying social and cultural capital, and when the opposing side lacks some of these capacities. Furthermore, the negative cultural impacts of global neoliberalism on contemporary societyــincluding the prevalence of a post-ideological and post-Marxist atmosphere, hedonism, the preservation of calm, the avoidance of violence, dialogue, and a focus on reform rather than revolutionــare all considered inhibiting factors in the realization of comprehensive revolutions in the twenty-first century.
Keywords
Unrest
Revolution
Political Movements
Social Capital
Cultural Capital
Revolutionary Leadership
Neoliberalism
Subjects
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Revolution Studies
Volume 4, Issue 7
June 2026
Pages 191-216

  • Receive Date 02 July 2025
  • Revise Date 09 October 2025
  • Accept Date 12 October 2025